TORONTO -- Canada’s the second-largest country on the planet when it comes to total area, divided into 338 electoral districts, or ridings.
Canadians’ voting patterns can be as diverse and varied as their vast geography. Here, we’ve broken down some key voting segments for you and indicators on some key issues in this election.
Read our voter segment insights below and visit ctvnews.ca/environics throughout the course of the campaign for more insights and analysis from us.
RIDING & ELECTION DATA
These riding reports use Environics Analytic’s 2021 estimates to create an up-to-date overview of each of Canada’s 338 federal ridings. We have selected a range of demographic, expenditure, psychographic, vaccination intention and movement data as indicators of overall riding characteristics and sentiment for some of the important issues in this election.
VOTER SEGMENTS
Voter segments provide insight into the voting preferences of different groups of Canadians. This allows us to understand which broad groups of voters are present in different ridings, how they might tend to view certain issues, and how they voted in the 2019 federal election.
To create these segments, we proportionately attributed publicly available poll-level return data from Elections Canada to the postal codes covered by each poll. Then we overlayed EA’s PRIZM data to create 15 voter segments that group together the 67 PRIZMs that tend to have similar demographics and regional voting behaviours.
We have provided national summary reports containing the same information as the Riding Reports for the voter segments. Note that these segments are based on postal code and riding data, not individual data, so the names and descriptions of each segment are intended to capture the predominant characteristics of each segment as a whole. Individual voters may or may not fit the segment’s characterization.
YOUNG IN THE CITY
Young Canadians starting their careers with good educations, while trying to enjoy what downtown neighbourhoods have to offer, characterizes this segment.
They score highest of all segments on the Social Values Ecological Concern and Ecological Lifestyle which means they are more likely to prioritize environmental protection even at the expense of economic growth, and that they are more willing than average to pay a premium for goods and services that protect the environment.
The Liberals won Young in the City in 2019 in every region but Alberta (Conservatives) and B.C. (NDP). This was the Conservatives’ worst-performing voter segment in every region, while it was a strong segment for the NDP and Greens. In fact, the Greens almost matched the leading Liberals in popular vote in New Brunswick.
Young in the City represents 2% to 10% of voters and has voter turnout of 66% which is close to the national average.
Top 5 Ridings (by per cent of eligible voters)
- Vancouver Centre, B.C.
- Spadina—Fort York, Ont.
- University—Rosedale, Ont.
- Toronto—Danforth, Ont.
- Davenport, Ont.
JEUNES EN VILLE
These young, urban Quebecers are a mix of young singles and couples starting out in dense, central neighbourhoods of Montreal and Quebec City. They represent 13% of Quebec’s voters.
Jeunes en Ville also has a high concentrations of immigrants and visible minorities. The environment should figure prominently in their voting decisions given the high scores they receive for the Social Values Ecological Concern and Ecological Lifestyle.
Voter turnout was 64% - below average, but not the lowest segment. They favoured the Liberals in 2019, with the Bloc Québécois in second and the NDP third. The NDP achieved their second-highest share of votes with this segment.
Top 5 Ridings (by per cent of eligible voters)
- Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie, Que.
- Laurier—Sainte-Marie, Que.
- Hochelaga, Que.
- LaSalle—Emard--Verdun, Que.
- Outremont, Que.
MODEST METROS
A lower-income segment found in central cities in English Canada, Modest Metros tend to have a variety of household types, with singles, couples and lone-parent families being common.
Residents are generally on the young side, but a smaller component of older residents also lives here. About 10% are Indigenous.
With their modest incomes, rent eats up a disproportionately large share of their expenses. Vaccine hesitancy is also above-average in Modest Metros.
Voter turnout was second-lowest of all segments in 2019 at 59%. Modest Metros is a competitive segment for the parties, perhaps with the potential to swing some seats if they can be mobilized.
In the West, the Conservatives dominated in 2019, but the NDP had strong showings in B.C. and Manitoba. In Ontario, the Liberals won the popular vote, with the Conservatives and NDP neck-in-neck and not that far behind.
Regionally, Modest Metros make up 5% to 10% of voters.
Top 5 Ridings (by per cent of eligible voters)
- Edmonton Griesbach, Alta.
- Hamilton Centre, Ont.
- London—Fanshawe, Ont.
- Saskatoon West, Sask.
- Windsor West, Ont.
NEW CANADIAN MOSAIC
New Canadian Mosaic represents between 9% and 14% of voters in the provinces where it is found in significant numbers: B.C., Alberta, Manitoba, Ontario and Quebec.
These are middle to lower-middle income areas in cities that have large numbers of newcomers. Cost of housing is high for these Canadians with rent taking proportionately a one-third larger share out of the household expenditure budget than average for Canadian tenants.
This segment was solidly Liberal in Ontario and Quebec, solidly Conservative in Alberta, and competitive between Liberal, Conservative and NDP in B.C. and Manitoba, with the Liberals leading.
With low voter turnout at 62%, getting this group engaged could help some parties make gains.
Top 5 Ridings (by per cent of eligible voters)
- Saint-Leonard—Saint-Michel, Que.
- Humber River—Black Creek, Ont.
- Scarborough Centre, Ont.
- York South—Weston, Ont.
- Vancouver South, B.C.
BIG CITY BURBS
Big City Burbs is a collection of prosperous suburbs mainly found in B.C., Alberta and Ontario. They tend to contain well-established immigrant and second-generation professionals and service workers who are raising their children in fast-growing communities.
In those three provinces, they represent 9% to 14% of voters and had below-average voter turnout at under 64%. They were highly sought after in the 2019 election. The Conservatives won this segment handily in Alberta, but the Liberals had a relatively strong showing with Big City Burbs compared to other segments.
In B.C., the Conservatives also won their popular vote, but the Liberals were not that far behind. In Ontario, the Liberals took this segment. During the third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, Big City Burbs stayed home more than all other segments: they spent an average of only 185 minutes per day away from their home postal codes in April, which was 17% below average. In July, that number jumped to 254 minutes, but was still the lowest of all segments.
This will be a segment to watch in this election.
Top 5 Ridings (by per cent of eligible voters)
- Brampton East, Ont.
- Brampton West, Ont.
- Scarborough North, Ont.
- Markham—Thornhill, Ont.
- Brampton North, Ont.
SECOND CITY SUBURBS
Middle and upper-middle income families gravitate to these suburban neighbourhoods in English Canada, found mostly around cities other than Toronto and Vancouver.
Pocketbook issues are likely top-of-mind with Second City Suburbs as they have high debt-to-asset ratios and a much larger-than-average share of expenses devoted to childcare.
On balance, this segment voted Conservative in 2019, but Ontario is the place to watch in the coming election for this segment because the Liberals and Conservatives were very close in popular vote.
Second City Suburbs represent 10% to 24% of voters depending on the province, and had voter turnout at an above-average 68%.
Top 5 Ridings (by per cent of eligible voters)
- Barrie—Innisfil, Ont.
- Edmonton—Wetaskiwin, Alta.
- Banff—Airdrie, Alta.
- Durham, Ont.
- Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge, B.C.
LES FAMILLES
Representing 24% of voters in Quebec, Les Familles are upper-middle-class families in Quebec’s suburbs.
Despite their decent incomes, Les Familles have an above-average debt-to-asset ratio so affordability and interest rates should figure in their day-to-day concerns. They had the highest voter turnout of all segments (71%) in 2019.
Les Familles favoured the Bloc Québécois, with the Liberals not far behind.
Top 5 Ridings (by per cent of eligible voters)
- Montarville, Que.
- Terrebonne, Que.
- Pierre-Boucher—Les Patriotes—Vercheres, Que.
- Therese-De Blainville, Que.
- Beloeil—Chambly, Que.
INDIGENOUS FAMILIES
About two in three residents identify as Indigenous in these small-town and rural communities. This segment includes most reserves across the country.
The majority of households has children present, with a significant number of multi-generational families. Residents score very strongly on the Social Value Multiculturalism, which indicates support for preserving and embracing diversity of cultures and communities.
Voter turnout was low at 54% and party preference was different region by region, with each of the three largest parties winning the popular vote depending on the province. Indigenous Families make up about half of voters in the Northwest Territories and Nunavut, while they are 5% or less in other regions.
Given the high concentration of this segment in some ridings, they are a critical force in those races despite their small overall numbers at a national or regional level.
Top 5 Ridings (by per cent of eligible voters)
- Nunavut
- Desnethé--Missinippi--Churchill River, Sask.
- Churchill--Keewatinook Aski, Man.
- Northwest Territories
- Kenora, Ont.
AFFLUENT FAMILIES
The wealthiest segment of voters in the country, Affluent Families typically have teenaged or college-aged children, or are empty-nest couples.
They have a low debt-to-asset ratio and live in well-heeled urban and suburban neighbourhoods where the average home value is more than $900,000, or 80% above the national average at year-end 2019.
Affluent Families range from 5% to 15% of voters in English Canada. They had high voter turnout (nearly 70%) and tended to vote Conservative in the West, while the Liberals won the popular vote with this segment in Ontario and the Atlantic Provinces.
Top 5 Ridings (by per cent of eligible voters)
- Markham—Unionville, Ont.
- Oakville, Ont.
- Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill, Ont.
- Richmond Hill, Ont.
- Lac-Saint-Louis, Que.
METRO BOOMERS
Metro Boomers are middle-income urban seniors found in English Canada. This segment has some of the highest levels of confidence in COVID-19 vaccines.
They typically make up 5% to 13% of voters in each region, and voter turnout was high at 69%. The Conservatives took this segment in Alberta and Saskatchewan, but the Liberals were the favourite party elsewhere.
However, Manitoba and B.C. were quite competitive, with the Conservatives close behind in popular vote.
Top 5 Ridings (by per cent of eligible voters)
- Burlington, Ont.
- Charleswood-St. James—Headingley, Man.
- Hamilton East—Stoney Creek, Ont.
- Ottawa West—Nepean, Ont.
- Oshawa, Ont.
SUBURBAN NESTERS
The late-career and retired couples and singles living in Suburban Nesters surround larger and mid-sized cities across English Canada.
With middle to lower-middle incomes often derived from retirement savings and pensions, their low-debt lifestyles ensure they are comfortable, but mindful of pocketbook issues that affect them. Their turnout was just shy of average at 65%.
They voted Liberal in the Atlantic Provinces and Conservative on the Prairies. But they are a force to be watched in this election, as both parties were close in popular vote in Ontario.
In B.C., the Conservatives led, but the NDP and Liberals had sizable proportions of the vote. In B.C., the Greens also captured its largest share of vote with this segment. Suburban Nesters are under 10% of voters in every region, with the highest concentrations in Atlantic Canada, B.C. and Ontario.
Top 5 Ridings (by per cent of eligible voters)
- Courtenay--Alberni
- Central Okanagan--Similkameen--Nicola
- Sault Ste Marie
- North Island--Powell River
- Nanaimo--Ladysmith
AGING HEARTLAND
Aging Heartland contains maturing families and empty-nest couples in English Canada’s most prosperous rural communities. Voter turnout was high, with 71% casting a ballot in 2019.
Climate and environmental initiatives are sure to be hot topics in Aging Heartland since their Social Values indicate that they are less supportive than average of paying extra for environmental initiatives.
This was a decidedly Conservative segment: they won Aging Heartland’s popular vote in every province except for some Atlantic provinces. They represent 8% to 18% of voters, depending on the province.
Top 5 Ridings (by per cent of eligible voters)
FRANCOPHONES AUX VILLAGES
These empty nesters live in smaller communities around Quebec. They have modest incomes, but also a low cost of living.
The segment has above-average vaccine hesitancy with higher-than average percentages of the population that say they will not get a COVID-19 vaccine or are unsure they will. They also have a high Frailty Index which is a composite score looking at age and co-morbidities of COVID-19.
Francophones aux Villages represents 23% of Quebec voters and had slightly above-average turnout at 68%. They were Bloc Quebecois voters in 2019, with the Liberals in second and the Conservatives close behind.
Top 5 Ridings (by per cent of eligible voters)
- Gaspesie—Les Iles-de-la-Madeleine, Que.
- Avignon—La Mitis—Matane—Matapedia, Que.
- Montmagny—L'Islet—Kamouraska—Riviere-du-Loup, Que.
- Megantic—L'Erable, Que.
- Laurentides—Labelle, Que.
OLDER RUSTIC
Older Rustic contains older, rural couples with modest incomes throughout English Canada. About 10% are Indigenous.
This segment moved out and about in their communities the most of all segments during the height of the third wave of COVID-19 in April. Older Rustic also has the largest proportion of people saying they do not intend to get vaccinated.
West of Quebec, they were Conservative voters in 2019 – almost singularly so on the Prairies.
In Ontario and B.C., they still preferred the Conservatives, but the NDP and Greens also had solid following.
In Atlantic Canada, they represent a large proportion of voters (around 50% in some provinces), and the Liberals were preferred. Older Rustic voters turned out at above-average rates (69%).
Top 5 Ridings (by per cent of eligible voters)
- Bonavista—Burin--Trinity, Nfld.
- West Nova, N.S.
- Central Nova, N.S.
- Coast of Bays—Central--Notre Dame, Nfld.
- Long Range Mountains, Nfld.
CELIBATAIRES ET COUPLES AGES
These traditional, older singles and couples live in and around Quebec’s cities, mostly outside of the Montreal region. They live in a mix of apartments and houses, and their modest incomes depend on pensions and retirement savings for those not working.
With the cost of living relatively low in their communities, they are still able to participate in cultural activities in their communities and take the odd trip.
There is a relatively high level of vaccine hesitancy, with a disproportionately large share of residents saying they will not get a COVID-19 vaccine.
They also have a high Frailty Index, indicating they are more likely to have health conditions that cause difficulty in going about their daily lives, especially with respect to COVID-19.
They make up 20% of the province’s voters and decisively favoured the Bloc Quebecois. Turnout in 2019 was low at 62%.
Top 5 Ridings (by per cent of eligible voters)
- Trois-Rivieres, Que.
- Sherbrooke, Que.
- Riviere-du-Nord, Que.
- Chicoutimi—Le Fjord, Que.
- Shefford, Que.
Backstory:
Environics Analytics (EA) specializes in creating high-quality, privacy-compliant estimates about the Canadian population at small geographic areas. We use a range of data sources and modelling techniques to estimate tens of thousands of variables relating to demographics, expenditures, wealth, leisure, health, psychographics, media use and human movement. EA has also created a detailed segmentation system called PRIZM that assigns each of Canada’s six-digit postal codes (or postal code-community name combinations in rural areas) to one of 67 lifestyle segments based on demographics, psychographics and urbanity.
PRIZM allows users to find similar types of populations wherever they are in the country, and to easily understand the different populations who live in a location or engage in an activity of interest. EA data is used to augment the understanding of populations, to locate them and to communicate more effectively with them.
Environics Analytics is a Bell Canada company
